From the fund · November 2, 2026

What the research says about school shootings and kids' futures.

The harm from a school shooting doesn't end when the building reopens. The best long-term research finds it follows children into school, college and work. Here is what it found, what it can't tell us, and why it matters for Silver Rail.

The short version: in Texas, students at schools where a shooting happened missed more school, repeated grades more often, and were less likely to finish high school, start college or earn a degree. In their mid-20s they were less likely to be working and earned about 13.5% less.^1,2 These are averages across many students. They are not a prediction for any one child.

The study: 26 years of Texas school and job records

Five economists from the University of Texas at Austin, Stanford, Northwestern and the University of Connecticut linked Texas school and job records from 1992 to 2018. They compared students at schools that had a shooting with students at closely matched schools that did not, before and after the event.¹ The study was published in The Review of Economic Studies, one of the most selective journals in economics, in 2026.

+12%absence rate in the two years after a shooting

2×the chance of repeating a grade

−15%likelihood of a bachelor's degree by age 26

−13.5%annual earnings at ages 24 to 26

In the first two years, absences rose about 12%, chronic absence rose about 28%, and the chance of repeating a grade more than doubled. Over the long run, exposed students were 3.7% less likely to graduate high school, 9.5% less likely to enroll in any college, 17.2% less likely to start a four-year college and 15.3% less likely to earn a bachelor's degree by 26. They were 6.3% less likely to be employed at 24 to 26 and earned about $2,780 (13.5%) less a year.²

The researchers estimate a loss of about $115,550 in lifetime earnings per exposed student, in 2018 dollars.² The harm showed up across student groups, which the authors read as a sign that the cost of school shootings is universal.¹

It starts with mental health

A related study of 44 school shootings from 2008 to 2013 found antidepressant prescriptions for young people near schools with a fatal shooting were 21.3% higher in the two to three years afterward than farther away.² Stanford's research summary connects these findings: stress and trauma come first, then missed school and lost learning, then fewer options as young adults.²

The researchers also found that schools did not add mental health staff after a shooting, and that the counselors and psychologists already on campus did not reduce the harm they measured.^2,3 The usual school supports, on their own, were not enough.

What this research can't tell us

Our kids are younger. The long-term college and earnings results come from eight Texas high school shootings, followed to age 26.² Silver Rail's children are in kindergarten through fifth grade. Young children may be affected differently, and no study yet follows elementary survivors into adulthood.
Averages, not destiny. Many exposed students did graduate, go to college and do well. The numbers describe a shift across a group.
It doesn't test solutions. The study measures harm. It does not test whether scholarships, therapy or any program prevents it. The Stanford summary points to Norway, which gave Utøya survivors substantial long-term support, as a model worth studying.²

Why it matters for Silver Rail

This research is why the fund plans for years, not weeks. Our kids need care that lasts past the first few months, help staying connected to school and each other, and, when they're older, fewer money barriers between them and college or a trade. Read why we're asking the state for a Silver Rail Promise.

Sources

Cabral, M., Kim, B., Rossin-Slater, M., Schnell, M., & Schwandt, H. (2026). Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students' Human Capital and Economic Outcomes. The Review of Economic Studies, 93(1), 327–365. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf027. Free earlier version: NBER Working Paper 28311, https://www.nber.org/papers/w28311.
Rossin-Slater, M. (June 2022). Surviving a school shooting: Impacts on the mental health, education, and earnings of American youth. Policy brief, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/surviving-school-shooting-impacts-mental-health-education-and-earnings
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. New study of gun violence in schools identifies long-term harms. https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/new-study-gun-violence-schools-identifies-long-term-harms

Sources opened and checked November 2, 2026. Percentages are relative changes reported by the researchers. General information, not medical advice. Worried about your child? Email hello@silverrailchildrensfund.org and we'll help you find a counselor at no cost to you.